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6月非农真的按下降息缓冲键两大知名投行都在说“不”

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FX168 Financial News (Hong Kong) News Monday (July 08) reported that this week the market focused on the two major events of the Federal Reserve and Powell. On Wednesday and Thursday, Fed Chairman Powell will testify to the US Financial Services Commission and the Senate Banking Committee on the US semi-annual monetary policy report, while the Fed's June policy minutes will be released on Thursday.

The news from all sides generally believes that the US non-agricultural eye-opening in June released last month has partially eased the need for an urgent rate cut. However, whether this situation is fulfilled still needs to find clues from the tone of this week.

However, the US federal funds rate market is still fully pricing the July 31 meeting rate cuts, making the Fed's July statement a confusing outlook.

In the market sentiment, with the opening of the Asian and European stock markets on Monday, US stock futures also started to fall in the doubts of investors whether the Fed is in urgent need of interest rate cuts. The S&P 500 and Dow futures prices both fell 0.3%;

Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.7% on Monday and the Nikkei index fell by 1%.

Bloomberg economists Yelena Shulyatyeva and Carl Riccadonna pointed out that Powell’s testimony will help the market to anticipate the opening of a small easing cycle, although the June data optimism reduced the need for a sharp cut in interest rates, but did not reverse the probability of a rate cut this year. As the inflation growth rate is still sluggish, the yield curve appears to be upside down.

Japanese Japanese website Japantimes wrote on the previous day that just before the release of US non-agricultural data last Friday, the US 2-year bond yield rose from 1.76% to 1.87%, reflecting the bond market's lower bets on the Fed's recent strong interest rate cuts.

xx该报告认为,尽管美联储在6月会议上放弃了“耐心和观望”的措辞,但6月份强劲的新就业表现可能导致美联储将小型宽松周期推迟至9月,但中央银行仍需要降息以避免收益。价格曲线更陡峭。

美国银行美林证券和资本经济专家认为,上周的数据恰逢经济增长放缓,但还不足以说服美联储立即降息。预计鲍威尔将利用听证会的机会再次在7月底降低市场利率。减少火灾。

文艺复兴宏观经济研究所经济学主管尼尔杜塔表示,7月份的会议比市场赌注更接近市场。如果投资者认为美联储将在今年三次降息,那么7月份的降息势头将会很强劲。这不太可能发生。

Alpha Fund Management驻中国基金经理Cyrix Wang认为,鉴于美联储大幅降息的可能性似乎已经下降,股市在近期应该保持谨慎。这使得市场能够对当前经济增长是否持续以及股票市场估值是否更高进行定价。

富时罗素集团(FTSE Russell Group)全球市场研究管理总监亚历克杨(Alec Young)表示,6月份的非农业报告重申美国国内经济的投资者是健全的,美联储需要关注全球业绩是否关注美联储需要降息。由于全球经济增长放缓,欧洲和日本的货币政策面临不确定性,导致美国投资者对美国政府债券的投资增加。

在欧洲交易时期,5月德国的工业生产和贸易数据在4月份急剧趋同的基础上仍然疲弱,这表明欧元区经济放缓仍然是一种“心脏病”。德国10年期国债收益率较上周五收盘水平再下跌0.006个百分点。

但是,并非所有机构和经济学家都同意。

不同意,包括高盛经济学家Jan Hatzuis的团队,他们表示美联储最近的演讲和采访都表明美联储将在7月31日降息的可能性。

“我认为降息仍是最有可能的结果。在7月31日的会议上,25点降息为60%,50点降息为50%,价格为25%。“

还有观点认为非农业数据往往滞后,一些前瞻性指标显示出美国经济增长放缓的迹象,而贸易摩擦已经打击了企业的信心和支出。

摩根大通分析师Bruce Kasman在报告中称,贸易摩擦仍然是一个值得关注的风险,即使达成协议后,公司对此事件的回应,而不是直接高关税的影响,将对全球带来更大的影响经济。威胁。